Does applying to IPOs pay?
Every figure counts the allotment lottery: you are paid only on the shares you actually receive, and the hottest IPOs are the ones you rarely get.
Did the Decision Desk's calls work?
Which rules would have paid?
Ranked by realistic net profit, after charges and tax, weighted by allotment odds. Select a rule to see its record. An asterisk marks fewer than 15 IPOs.
What actually drives the listing gain?
How far can GMP be trusted?
Market regime: average listing gain by month
Does the research grade help?
The grade follows how established evaluators work: CRISIL's IPO grading (business and financial prospects, management, governance, graded 1 to 5 relative to other listed companies and explicitly not a price opinion); Renaissance Capital (fundamentals, governance, valuation against listed peers, insider selling); and Indian broker IPO notes (valuation against peers as the main reason to avoid, growth and return on capital as the reason to pay up). Pillars: growth 30, profitability 30, balance sheet 15, governance and issue structure 25. Grades are quintiles within each segment. "After listing" compares the latest price with the listing-day close, from Chittorgarh's sector tables; it covers only part of the sample and a few weeks of trading.
Method and settings
- The trade. Apply at the upper band. If allotted, sell at the listing price less slippage (mainboard 0.5%, SME 2%), after STT, exchange, GST and DP charges. Short-term gains tax of 20.8% is netted per financial year. Cash is blocked from the bid day until the refund (two working days) or the sale proceeds (listing plus one day).
- Allotment odds. 1 ÷ retail subscription where known, otherwise total subscription. Application counts are not published, so true odds may be somewhat better.
- Testing the calls. Each IPO is scored using only history from before its bid date. GMP is the closing-day figure where available, otherwise the listing-eve figure, which is slightly optimistic. Final subscription is known only as bidding closes.
- Samples. A few hundred IPOs per segment from one market phase. Small groups are marked. This is descriptive analysis, not investment advice.